H-1B visas have recently been In The News. 

Elon Musk is vocally in favor of expanding the program. Steve Bannon is opposed. Trump says he’s a big believer in H-1B visas, though he moved to restrict them during his first term. Bernie Sanders has also joined the fray, saying Musk just wants cheap immigrant labor.

It seemed worthwhile spending some time summarizing what we do - and do not - know about H-1B visas and their effects on the American labor market.

Sharing because it seems relevant to figuring out the likely economic impact from AI:

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TkWCKzWjcbfGzdNK5/applying-traditional-economic-thinking-to-agi-a-trilemma

Much of this content originated on social media. To follow news and announcements in a more timely fashion, follow me on Twitter, Threads, Bluesky, or Farcaster.

Contents

• From me and RPI
• Jobs and fellowships
• Other opportunities
• Events
• Questions
• Announcements
• Commentary on the wildfires
• Sam Altman: AI workers in 2025, superintelligence next
• Never underestimate elasticity of supply
• “The earnestness and diligence of smart technical people”
• “Americans born on foreign soil”
• Undaunted
• Eli Dourado’s model of policy change
• Stats
• Links
• AI
• Inspiration
• Politics
• China biotech rising
• Predictions about war
• Why did we wait so long for the camera?
• Housing without homebuilders
• Charts
• Fun

From me and RPI

• 2024 in review for me and RPI, in case you missed it, including my annual “highlights from things I read this year”
• First batch of recorded talks from Progress Conference 2024 are available now. Special thanks to Freethink Media for their excellent work producing these

Jobs and fellowships

• Epoch AI hiring a Technical Lead “to develop a next-generation computer-use benchmark

This is a linkpost for https://optimistsbarn.substack.com/p/how-to-be-a-techno-optimist-for-animals

The industrialization of animal agriculture has created an abundance that would shock our ancestors. Meat, eggs, and dairy—which at various points in history were scarce, expensive, or contaminated—are now common, affordable, and safe. 

However, in our drive towards economic efficiency, we've shifted much of the true cost of production onto the animals themselves. Any accommodation for animal welfare faces immense competitive pressure to be removed, and the result is a husbandry system that stands in stark contrast to our common-sense ethics. We’ve all seen the videos—the gory details need not be provided.

Farm animal welfare is a serious moral problem, yet the solutions most often proposed lack realism. Some think we should all stop eating meat, others want to revert to an earlier way...

The Iron Rolling Mill (Modern Cyclopes) is a drama of man and machine. Painted by Aldoph Menzel in 1872-1875, the work is life-size at approximately 5 by 8 feet. The painting brings to life the intense and dangerous environment of an early Industrial Revolution German railroad track factory, with a fiery focus on the iron rolling mill where molten metal is brought through a series of rollers to waiting workers to shape into steel rails. As shadows and steam create demonic shapes, modern eyes might focus on the dangerous working conditions in the early Industrial Age. While this is not wrong, this misses a larger vantage point of the piece that can speak to us today, on the cusp...

2024 was a big year for me, and an even bigger year for the Roots of Progress Institute (RPI). For one, we became the Roots of Progress Institute (with a nice new logo and website). Here’s what the org and I were up to this year. (My annual “highlights from what I read this year” are towards the end, if you’re looking for that.)

The Progress Conference

Progress Conference 2024, hosted by RPI together with several great co-presenters, was the highlight of my year, and I think some other people’s too. We’ve already covered it in previous writeups, but in case you’re just tuning in: well over 200 people attended (with hundreds on the waitlist); dozens of great speakers, including Tyler Cowen, Patrick Collison, and Steven Pinker; and over...

Much of this content originated on social media. To follow news and announcements in a more timely fashion, follow me on Twitter, Threads, Bluesky, or Farcaster.

Contents

• My essays
• Fellowship opportunities
• Announcements
• Events
• News
• Questions
• Live gloriously
• Where being right matters
• Off-grid solar for data centers
• Permitting vs. compliance
• Mirror life FAQ
• Crossword mania
• Do we want to democratize art-making?
• Polio
• How many people could you feed on an acre?
• Verifiable video
• Links and tweets

My essays

In case you missed it:

• A progress policy agenda: Elon says that soon, builders “will be free to build” in America. If that promise is to be fulfilled, we have work to do. Here’s my wishlist of policy goals to advance scientific, technological, and economic progress

Fellowship opportunities

• “FutureHouse is launching an independent postdoctoral fellowship program for exceptional researchers who want to apply our automated science tools to specific problems in biology and

Elon Musk says that soon, builders “will be free to build” in America. If that promise is to be fulfilled, we have work to do.

Here’s my wishlist of policy goals to advance scientific, technological, and economic progress. I’m far from a policy wonk, so I’m mostly going to be referencing folks I trust, such as the RPI fellows, the Institute for Progress (IFP), or Eli Dourado at the Abundance Institute. (I’m sympathetic to most of what is linked below, and consider all of it interesting and worthwhile, but don’t assume I agree with anything 100%.)

AI

AI has enormous potential to create prosperity and security for America and the world. It also introduces new risks and enhances old ones. However, I think it would be a mistake to create...

A while back, I wrote a quick update on the EA forum about my work with a Belgian animal advocacy group and how the Belgian Senate voted to enshrine animal welfare in the Constitution.

It's been a journey. I work for GAIA, a Belgian animal advocacy group that for years has tried to get animal welfare added to the constitution. Today we were present as a supermajority of the senate came out in favor of our proposed constitutional amendment. [...]

It's a very good day for Belgian animals but I do want to note that:

1. This does not mean an effective shutdown of the meat industry, merely that all future pro-animal welfare laws and lawsuits will have an easier time.  And,
2. It still needs to pass the Chamber of Representatives.

If there's