My first reaction was that this seems to be assuming a zero discount rate on the future. I haven't had a chance to really dig into it though

Really enjoyed this book, it inspired me to start Roots of Progress! https://blog.rootsofprogress.org/the-idea-of-progress 

I would say both immigration and crime are relevant to progress!

The antibodies argument always made the most sense to me. But note that this is an argument for some breast milk, not an all-breast-milk diet—that is, it's not an argument against formula, just an argument against an all-formula diet. I mention this because when we were in the hospital with our kid, they were pushing against formula very hard.

Also, it's not an argument for literal feeding at the breast, as opposed to pumping and then bottle-feeding with the breast milk, which is easier for some people.

Emily Oster covers breastfeeding in Chapter 4 of Cribsheet, more extensively than in the 538 article you linked to. IIRC, she notes that there is evidence of benefit for the mother in terms of reduced breast cancer risk (no idea why that would be, though).

(But in general, I agree that Oster is too quick to say “it doesn't matter” about things that we don't have rigorous evidence for, rather than trying to make an informed decision about the best course of action based on what data and theories we do have. Other than that minor criticism, though, I am a big fan of her work.)

Thanks.

Yes, one of my problems with compatibilism is, if determinism is true, then in some sense none of this matters? Like, why bother talking about progress when the entire trajectory of the future is already predetermined and literally nothing will change it?

Thanks!

I just updated https://rootsofprogress.org/manifesto with links to everything that's been published so far, and will try to keep it up to date.

By agency, I mean two closely related things.

• It is the belief that we can make choices and that those choices matter and can be effective, that we can to some significant degree control our lives and shape our future, both as individuals and as a society. The opposite of this is fatalism, the belief that we're being carried along by forces outside our control and that we don't have any choices or that they don't matter.
• It is also an ideal or a value, in the sense of believing that it is good for people to have choices and to make them, and that the expansion of choice (again, both for individuals and for society) is a good thing.

I do believe in free will (although I'm less clear on it and less certain about it than I used to be) but I'm not sure that a strong belief in free will is necessary to align with my concept of agency—maybe you could also agree with it under a compatibilist notion of volition.

Thanks Sean, and welcome!

Tyler Cowen did something like this for covid: https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2020/03/1-million-plus-in-emergent-ventures-prizes-for-coronavirus-work.html 

I liked Vitalik's post and generally agree

OK, sorry!