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In the progress movement, some cause areas are about technical breakthroughs, such as fusion power or a cure for aging. In other areas, the problems are not technical, but social. Housing, for instance, is technologically a solved problem. We know how to build houses, but housing is blocked by law and activism.

The YIMBY movement is now well established and gaining momentum in the fight against the regulations and culture that hold back housing. More broadly, similar forces hold back building all kinds of things, including power lines, transit, and other infrastructure. The same spirit that animates YIMBY, and some of the same community of writers and activists, has also been pushing to reform regulation such as NEPA.

Healthcare has both types of problems. We need breakthroughs in science...

[I am relatively new to this forum. I recently published this post on my substack inspired by the progress studies mindset. I hope some of you can resonate with this.]

Ever since broadening my views on how to help animals, I've been learning about more movements and ideas that may provide new insights for animal welfare. I believe progress studies is one such movement.

Society has made a huge amount of progress on several key metrics in the past few decades such as nutrition, healthcare, access to energy. Top left: deaths from malnutrition, top right: child mortality rate, bottom: people without access to electricity.

The Progress Studies Framework for Animal Welfare

While lot of progress studies ideas are great, I don't completely agree with the progress studies movement on everything, notably...

The US is experiencing a great decline in trust. According to the US General Social Survey, people who agreed with the statement "most people can be trusted" went from 49% to 25% between 1984 and 2022.[1]

Trust in institutions is also falling. Over that same period trust in the government fell from 42% to 20%.

For civil services it fell from 56% to 41%, for the police it fell from 74% to 68%, and for congress it fell from 52% to a whopping 15%.[2]
Even international institutions, like the United Nations, are losing trust, going from 47% to 44%.

It’s not just institutions, organizations are also losing trust. According to the WVS, over that same period public trust in the press declined from 49% to 29%, trust in major companies declined...

Last fall the Roots of Progress Institute hosted the first annual Progress Conference. 200 people excited about human progress gathered for two days in Berkeley, California, to share ideas in deep conversation, catalyze new projects, and get energized and inspired. Several attendees even said it was the best conference they had ever attended. We shared more about our reflections here, including a list of over a dozen write-ups from writers such as Noah Smith, Packy McCormick, Scott Alexander, and many more.

Whenever a new movement is growing, an annual event like this is important to build its community and establish its identity. So, after last year’s great reception, we’re excited to announce Progress Conference 2025. It will be bigger, longer, and better, as we build on last year’s...

I was wondering if anyone has a good response to Toby Ord's reservations about progress studies.

In summary, Ord argues that it's far from obvious that advancing progress is inherently good or bad, since this depends on whether it also accelerates humanity's extinction, undermining standard economic arguments for progress.

I think Leopold Aschenbrenner's argument here is interesting to consider: https://worksinprogress.co/issue/securing-posterity/?ref=forourposterity.com 

(full paper https://globalprioritiesinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/Philip-Trammell-and-Leopold-Aschenbrenner-Existential-Risk-and-Growth.pdf) 

Regarding discount rate, 0% discount is pretty common in EA circles, I think, although I think many recognize it should be at least a bit above 0% to account for epistemic uncertainty about how long humans will continue to exist. 

There's a common story we tell about innovation — that it's a relentless march across the frontier, led by fundamental breakthroughs in engineering, science, research, etc. Progress, according to this story, is mainly about overcoming hard technological bottlenecks. But even in heavily optimized and well-funded competitive industries, there is a surprising amount of innovation that happens that doesn't require any new advances in research or engineering, that isn't about pushing the absolute frontier, and actually could have happened at any point before.

Road Cycling is an example of a heavily optimized sport - where huge sums of money get spent on R&D, trying to make bikes as fast and comfortable as possible, while there are millions of enthusiast recreational riders, always trying to do whatever they can to...

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This is a linkpost for my book review from my personal blog, Trajectory. Read the original post (and subscribe to the newsletter) here: https://blog.jovono.com/p/book-review-abundance-by-ezra-klein

“The best lack all conviction, while the worst/Are full of passionate intensity.”

William Butler Yeats, The Second Coming

Abundance, by Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson, is the newest and most anticipated release of a series of books that have recently come out on the topic of improving progressive governance, like Dunkelman’s Why Nothing Works, Demsas’s On the Housing Crisis, and Appelbaum’s Stuck. Particularly given the authors’ fame, Abundance has triggered a significant debate, much more than the other books in this subgenre.

Abundance exists in the context of a conversation the authors helped start that focuses on maximizing outputs rather than inputs. It goes by several names,...

I asked Claude to write new lyrics for Ode to Joy, with the theme of progress. The result was wonderful! So I am sharing it here.

Fields of plenty, golden harvests
Where once famine stalked the land
Human ingenuity triumphs
Food for every outstretched hand

Engines, circuits, wheels in motion
Labors eased by human minds
What once broke the backs of billions
Now by clever tools designed

Ships and railways, planes connecting
Distant shores to distant shores
Nations trade in peaceful commerce
Through their open, welcoming doors

City lights that shine like beacons
Where once darkness ruled the night
Voices, faces cross vast oceans
Binding hearts through waves of light

Plagues that once decimated nations
Now retreat before our will
Lives extended, pain diminished
Not by prayer but by our skill

From the shadows of past conflicts
Dawn of shared prosperity
Abundance flows through peaceful borders
As one human family