In many discussions about economic progress, concerns around safety and sustainability were raised.
I really liked how Tyler Cowen used the phrase "sustainable economic growth" in Stubborn Attachments to encompass concerns around safety and sustainability. My view is that progress which inevitably leads us off a cliff isn't real progress because over some time interval it approaches zero.
I find that framing progress in terms of resource efficiency to be useful. A lot of people equate economic progress with an image of factories spewing smoke into the atmosphere. However, progress to me is about using our scarce resources more efficiently, and is thus inherently about sustainability.
Throughout the history of economic progress, we have become increasingly capable of creating more economic value using less scarce resources. E.g. today's cars, stoves, computers, lightbulbs, generators, motors, etc. are more efficient than their predecessors. In my view, our goal here is to extend this trend into the future, e.g. by creating fusion reactors that produce one kilowatt hour for 5% the price it costs today, and by creating computer algorithms that increase the efficiency of our scarce labour force and so on.
Is it too parochial to equate economic progress with resource efficiency? Or does it make some sense?
Efficiency is a dimension of progress, but it is only one dimension. Sometimes we make progress by improving the power, speed, or throughput of our machines or processes. Not all improvements are efficiency improvements. But over time, higher efficiency is one of the big trends of industrial progress.
I agree that anything that leads us off a cliff, that is, leads us to some disaster for humanity, is not progress.
But the problem with the concept of “sustainability” is: what are you trying to sustain? Our goal should be sustained progress, sustained economic growth, sustained improvements in human well-being—not sustaining indefinitely the use of some particular technology, which is in fact stagnation, the opposite of progress.
We have sustainable progress not by using “sustainable” resources, but by switching to new, much more abundant resources when old ones are running out—as we switched from whale oil to petroleum, or from ivory to plastic, or from manure to synthetic fertilizer. More here: Unsustainable
In many discussions about economic progress, concerns around safety and sustainability were raised.
I really liked how Tyler Cowen used the phrase "sustainable economic growth" in Stubborn Attachments to encompass concerns around safety and sustainability. My view is that progress which inevitably leads us off a cliff isn't real progress because over some time interval it approaches zero.
I find that framing progress in terms of resource efficiency to be useful. A lot of people equate economic progress with an image of factories spewing smoke into the atmosphere. However, progress to me is about using our scarce resources more efficiently, and is thus inherently about sustainability.
Throughout the history of economic progress, we have become increasingly capable of creating more economic value using less scarce resources. E.g. today's cars, stoves, computers, lightbulbs, generators, motors, etc. are more efficient than their predecessors. In my view, our goal here is to extend this trend into the future, e.g. by creating fusion reactors that produce one kilowatt hour for 5% the price it costs today, and by creating computer algorithms that increase the efficiency of our scarce labour force and so on.
Is it too parochial to equate economic progress with resource efficiency? Or does it make some sense?
Efficiency is a dimension of progress, but it is only one dimension. Sometimes we make progress by improving the power, speed, or throughput of our machines or processes. Not all improvements are efficiency improvements. But over time, higher efficiency is one of the big trends of industrial progress.
I agree that anything that leads us off a cliff, that is, leads us to some disaster for humanity, is not progress.
But the problem with the concept of “sustainability” is: what are you trying to sustain? Our goal should be sustained progress, sustained economic growth, sustained improvements in human well-being—not sustaining indefinitely the use of some particular technology, which is in fact stagnation, the opposite of progress.
We have sustainable progress not by using “sustainable” resources, but by switching to new, much more abundant resources when old ones are running out—as we switched from whale oil to petroleum, or from ivory to plastic, or from manure to synthetic fertilizer. More here: Unsustainable
See also: A dialogue on growth, progress, and “sustainability”; Reframing “sustainability”
Thank you Jason. That's a very thoughtful response. I will check out those recommendations.