All of mlsbft's Comments + Replies

miscellaneous fun questions:

Is the best yet to come for New Jersey?

Is the best yet to come for the Visegrad 4?

Who's the most talented Brontë sister? Best Brontë book?

Who was the most important British woman author?

Is it important for kids to play sports?

3Tyler Cowen2yNew Jersey has more talent and human capital than before, but the Northeast is much less culturally central. I would still be long New Jersey, though, for the future. The best for Visegrad 4, for human creativity, was late 19th century/early 20th century, up through the 1930s. That will never be reattained. As for living standards -- now is the peak and it will get much better yet. I don't love Jane Eyre, so I have to go with Wuthering Heights. On most important, the usual answer would be Jane Austen, but how about Mary Shelley instead? More prophetic. Virginia Woolf too, I prefer both over Austen. Maybe important to play sports for 2/3 of kids? But heterogeneity reigns!

Tyler Cowen AMA

mlsbft2y1

Ignoring the possibility of crazy AI stuff, will economists 'solve' development economics in the next 100 years?

2Tyler Cowen2yNope. That was easy!

Tyler Cowen AMA

mlsbft2y2

Do the GPTs constitute >10% of the AI capabilities progress (set zero at just before AlexNet) necessary for automating most of the science R&D process?

2Tyler Cowen2yActual R&D involves so much interface with the real world, I fear that AIs will have a tough time there. So much of R&D is like "gardening." AI will be a significant aide to us, but the humans will remain paramount in those endeavors. Important aides, but complements to us, not some means of replacing us. Thus it is hard to give a percentage.

2Tyler Cowen2yWe are not close to that in my view. Not close to ten percent even.

Tyler Cowen AMA

mlsbft2y2

Is the ability to automate most of the scientific R&D process a necessary component of transformative AI that meaningfully accelerates economic growth? If not, what do these intermediate abilities look like?

2Tyler Cowen2yThe short- and also medium-run impact of AI will be to dramatically improve workflows for the five (?) percent or so of those who will know how to work with it. A long time before aggregate productivity measures as much higher! Like both computers and the internet. The more important thing is that we now see that the key breakthroughs are possible.