Thoughtful piece - I updated a bit towards discontinuous takeoff. Thanks for sharing!
I've considered putting bounties out to create content related to this this. DM me if you want to jam on this!
Fascinating! The more I study medicine and medical history the more disappointed I am with the field. Do you know of any good critiques of the McKinlays' paper?
I enjoy these posts! Two suggestions:
Big fan of this idea! My team (Nonlinear.org) created The Nonlinear Library so people can use their podcast app (Spotify, Apple, etc) to listen to top posts from the EA Forum, Alignment Forum, and LessWrong. If there's enough interest, we could make a Progress Forum podcast feed as well!
Important idea, easy to lose sight of - thanks for the reminder!
Loved this! Possibly my favorite innovation hack is just assuming innovation-related distributions are power laws.
Starting prior: assume it's a power law.
Secondary prior: assume it's quadratic or pareto-ish.
Good review and good rec - just bought the book and am enjoying it so far. Thanks!
Ahh, didn't know it was linked to karma. Thanks!
Really excited about the potential of this forum!
Question: when I strong upvote the vote count only ticks up by one. Is this intentional? I'm a big fan of casting two votes at a time for stellar contributions!