All of Tyler Cowen's Comments + Replies
Progress has its own fans, namely those who drive it and benefit from it. So I think the Zeitgeist is not entirely against us. It is a better situation than it looks from the so-called "world of ideas" alone.
Walter Grinder was my very first mentor, I met him when I was 13 or 14 years old. He showed me what a life of reading could look like. But I've had many other mentors along the way, Thomas Schelling being one of the most famous of those, Derek Parfit too. Fischer Black.
I don't have a good answer to the pregnancies question...
I think all states will be much better off in 50 years time. Maybe it is the Midwest that is currently underrated? Lots of great cultural roots there.
Currently it is the moment for Florida and Texas, but I wouldn't say I have a very specific prediction for fifty years out, that is a long time away.
I observe more people migrating to the high-technology countries than away from them...poor countries are hardly safe and secure...
In fact I think computers are the main reason why the game is so much more popular. It gives almost everyone access to what is going on in the board -- that was previously unavailable. and you know exactly how your favorite player is doing. Imagine if we had to watch NBA games without knowing the score! That was pre-computer chess for most observers.
Actual R&D involves so much interface with the real world, I fear that AIs will have a tough time there. So much of R&D is like "gardening." AI will be a significant aide to us, but the humans will remain paramount in those endeavors. Important aides, but complements to us, not some means of replacing us. Thus it is hard to give a percentage.
The degree of federalism in the United States helps as well. I see more decisions and functions of government devolving to the states and even cities. That introduces more political competition into the American system.
Development has a lot to do with culture, and "culture" as a problem never will be solved. And new technologies change which features of a country are most important for development. Will "manufacture plus export" ever be so important again as it was for Japan and Korea? Doubtful, at least not anytime soon. Poland has been going a very different route. Expect something quite different again from the parts of Africa which succeed.
"Theory" in general is out of style these days. Insights of modernisation theory might end up being tested, but as a "theory" I don't think it will make a comeback. Somehow there is too much academic hyperspecialization for that to happen, and it increasingly seems like the approach of a bygone era. And to be clear, I still have some sympathies for that bygone era, even if most of its hypotheses were wrong.
I think it suffices if they simply care about their profit. Ideally, VCs would speak up more for progress, but a lot of them are already pretty good on these issues. They are far from the problem. It is all the other interest groups that I worry about.
Agree, but of course it is easier to destroy than to create...
Build out your "small group" and also your mentors! Raises the likelihood of this then happening spontaneously.
The researcher also learns a great deal doing fieldwork that is not learned sitting at the PC, or whatever. That makes field work all the more underrated.
Possible answer: The returns to high verbal intelligence will not necessarily fall if AI gains the writing abilities of the median NYT opinion writer, but they will become more heterogeneous and dependent on the context and purpose of writing. AI may be able to generate coherent, grammatical, and persuasive prose on a variety of topics, but it may not be able to capture the nuances, subtleties, and originality of human expression, nor the emotional, ethical, and aesthetic dimensions of writing. Moreover, AI may not be able to adapt to changing audience pre... (read more)
We love watching the commenting computers tell us where the human is going wrong. There is a lesson in that!
We are not close to that in my view. Not close to ten percent even.
The one big thing I know is that I know many things.
And I am a bird.
Nope. That was easy!
Our market is large enough, and there are enough foreign sources of competition and innovation, that yes I think this will work out OK. It is just that we could do so, so much better.
Improving science policy? I wrote a bit more about this in another answer. Maybe Heidi Williams will lead the charge. I am optimistic.
Farting?
The short- and also medium-run impact of AI will be to dramatically improve workflows for the five (?) percent or so of those who will know how to work with it.
A long time before aggregate productivity measures as much higher! Like both computers and the internet.
The more important thing is that we now see that the key breakthroughs are possible.
Russia was authoritarian in earlier times when it was also more religious. (Plus I think that number under-measures current Russian religiosity.)
Maybe authoritarian family structure is one underlying reason?
Never have been ruled by the Roman Empire also seems important?
India is already trying a version of that with Hindu Nationalism, yes.
Well, it all needs more attention.
Science policy is one area that has gained in attention the most, but perhaps it is still the most underrated?
Or how about serious engagement with the histories of East Asia?
Ireland for that matter? Current Poland?
Fortunately, the Industrial Revolution is relatively well-studied, though those works should be much better know and taught more generally.
The skill of the operator will remain paramount, see my book Average is Over.
I don't view LLMs as substitutes for human beings, not for most tasks. Think of them instead as servants you can embed in your work flows. Writers and public intellectuals who are good at that will do very very well.
Of course those skilled at that task are probably a very different set of people than those who have been succeeding to date.
STudying food markets shows that progress is possible!
It shows the importance of immigration.
The diversity of quarters from which innovation comes.
Not all sectors are like food markets, but it is one very good place to start. And food markets give you a very good chance to chat with very smart people who are not college-educated.
Every economist should write a biography or two! Biographies cast a pretty severe light on what you can and cannot explain. Most things you cannot explain and choice is so often idiosyncratic.
The Great Man Theory seems underrated to me. Take away Napoleon, Lenin, or Hitler, and a lot seems veyr different. So maybe we should call it "The Evil Man" theory...
The good individuals matter less, at least as individuals!?
See this column for my take: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-12-24/2020-in-review-maybe-it-wasn-t-quite-as-horrible-as-it-seemed?sref=htOHjx5Y
My prediction in 2011 was that the Great Stagnation would end within twenty years, so far to me that is looking correct.
There is so much joint production I am not sure we will get so far with this. Simply the level of wages may be a start, however.
I don't see the import of AI models as stand-alone skills, rather being integrated into workflows. So I am not sure the predictions would mean that much. There are plenty of skills (memory!) where "computers," broadly construed, are already much better than humans.
Can't really do it! You have to hope for some crazy people with tenure bucking the system. There are always a few of those, but they will not dominate. But add to their ranks crazy untenured people who write on the internet, and then you have something real in terms of influence.
There are papers on this which I haven't read, I would consult those most of all. India will spend a lot on A/C. Texas is doing pretty well, as is Phoenix, so I am not worried so much about heat per se.
New Jersey has more talent and human capital than before, but the Northeast is much less culturally central. I would still be long New Jersey, though, for the future.
The best for Visegrad 4, for human creativity, was late 19th century/early 20th century, up through the 1930s. That will never be reattained. As for living standards -- now is the peak and it will get much better yet.
I don't love Jane Eyre, so I have to go with Wuthering Heights.
On most important, the usual answer would be Jane Austen, but how about Mary Shelley instead? More prophetic. Virginia Woolf too, I prefer both over Austen.
Maybe important to play sports for 2/3 of kids? But heterogeneity reigns!
I think they are complements. The internet always can take credit for the AI models, if need be. I think they are both transformative in any case, though the AI models will take a long time to boost gdp in a measurable fashion. In the short run, AI models will make the most productive people, if they are willing to experiment with AI, much more productive.
I see fixing mental illness as the number one priority here...that would boost both wealth and wealth plus, though probably the latter by more.