All of NunoSempere's Comments + Replies
Marc Andreessen pens “Techno-Optimist Manifesto.” Discuss
E.g., "Our enemy is the Precautionary Principle", unqualified
31yTo be exact, what he said was:
I interpret that to mean not that he's against precaution, but that he thinks
terms like that are being used to promote bad ideas.
Also, the Precautionary Principle is objectively bad:
–David Deutsch, The Beginning of Infinity
–Matt Ridley, How Innovation Works
Marc Andreessen pens “Techno-Optimist Manifesto.” Discuss
I see the appeal and I like the aliveness, but I dislike the lack of nuance and disagree on the specifics.
11yWhich specifics?
AMA: Allison Duettmann, Foresight Institute
Do you see most of the value/impact/benefit that the Foresight Institute produces as coming from a few key outputs, or from a larger list of projects each of which only produces a fraction of your total value? If the first, what are your key outputs?
42yI think Foresight's value comes from a larger list of projects each of which has
a small chance at creating a large impact. This comes mostly from the fact that
we focus on advancing the beneficial use of a variety of undervalued
technologies, including nano, bio, neuro, computing, and space, whose trajectory
is harder to predict. We do this through early ecosystem development in these
areas, that usually includes tools like our fellowships, prizes, workshops, and
virtual seminars. Given that different technologies impact Given that many of
the technologies are influenced by the relative speed of other technologies,
they will be advancing at varying rates, and tools to accelerate them are
differently useful at different stages.
For instance, for driving progress in Molecular Nanotechnology, from 1986
onward, Foresight started hosting annual technical conferences, published
research papers, developed a Nanotechnology Roadmap, and launched the Feynman
Prizes to award work toward molecular manufacturing.
The road was incredibly bumpy, but in 2016, Sir Fraser Stoddart was finally
awarded the Nobel Prize for his work “for the design and synthesis of molecular
machines” (https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/chemistry/2016/press-release/
[https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/chemistry/2016/press-release/]) just nine
years after he received Foresight’s Feynman Prize
[https://foresight.org/foresight-feynman-prizes/] for the exact work:
https://foresight.org/foresight-feynman-prizes/
[https://foresight.org/foresight-feynman-prizes/]
Today, molecular nanotechnology progress is accelerating faster, largely enabled
by new AI simulation tools, such as AlphaFold, Rosetta, Samson, CanDo, and more.
Simulation tools, combined with progress in newer approaches to molecular
nanotechnology, such as DNA origami, led tech-analysts such as Eli Durado
declare that it’s Nanotechnology’s spring:
https://worksinprogress.co/issue/nanotechnologys-spring
To streamline progress across tool builders
AMA: Allison Duettmann, Foresight Institute
What does Eric Drexler think about the Foresight Institute? If I recall correctly, he was one of the founders?
52yI think this is a question that is better directed at Eric himself :) I can
confirm that he was one of Foresight’s co-founders, and that he did present at a
few more Foresight recent events, such as the Decentralized AI workshop (
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pClSjljMKeA
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pClSjljMKeA],
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hNDD-ZbEsJA) and a Molecular Machines workshop
(https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HjgjtAk-lws&t=1s).
I can also definitely say that our community remains excited about his
outstanding work, such as Comprehensive AI Services, the Open Agency
Architecture, Paretotopian Goal Alignment, and Molecular Nanotechnology.
AMA: Allison Duettmann, Foresight Institute
What are some example decisions that the Foresight Institute's work has helped influence?
42yGiven that our main effort is to kindle beneficial innovation in undervalued
technical domains of importance for the long-term future, such decisions are
sometimes hard to trace but are mostly in the area of founding and funding such
projects.
Through Foresight matchmaking, members have started companies (such as a carbon
drawdown company co-founded by a Foresight Fellow who met their co-founder at a
Foresight event and recently raised $30M in follow-on funding), new research
projects (such as a major research project building LLM-enabled preference
simulations of groups of people which was founded and funded at a Foresight
workshop), and existing organizations receiving government funding (more than
$30M for a water filtration company, and $15M for a molecular nanotechnology
simulation project at a university through Foresight workshops).
Other decisions we shape involve early career path choices, with individuals
joining organizations, including a neurotech FRO, several major longevity
companies, and security companies, through Foresight events. In rare cases, aid
career decisions more actively, for instance by providing J1 visas to promising
researchers seeking to move to the US. This more tailored support is
particularly prominent with younger applicants who have little default exposure
to senior researchers, funders, and entrepreneurs in their domain.
Introductions thread (please introduce yourself)
I'm Nuño Sempere, a researcher at the Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute, where I work on refining broadly utilitarian estimation methods. I have a blog here—where I post my research but also offer cancellation insurance or talk abou the joys of programming a browser in C—and a forecasting newsletter here. I learnt about this place through EA (effective altruism), which I've become a bit disillusioned about.
Eli Dourado AMA
For a center hosted by a university, what cut of funding does the university normally take?
12yI am blessedly exempt from having to deal with any financial or management
issues at the CGO, so I don't know. We do get along with the USU administration
really well, though.
You might want to Ctrl+F here for mentions of the precautionary principle: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169207020301230