All of Michael Frank Martin's Comments + Replies

Announcing The Techno-Humanist Manifesto: A new philosophy of progress for the 21st century

For some this might be too fine a distinction, but for me understanding ontology has always been important, and I find compatabilism useful for its pragmatic distinction between ontology and any prescriptivist philosophy (like positivism). A compatibilist can accept that we don't have free will and yet endorse the instrumental value of rhetoric that promotes freedom — what does it matter that under the hood it's just thermodynamics? One can't escape the illusion of free will even if and when you believe it is an illusion and try hard to do so. But pragamat... (read more)

Announcing The Techno-Humanist Manifesto: A new philosophy of progress for the 21st century

I'm still mulling this over, but I have come around to the view that you're right about what you're calling "agency" not being something that could be removed without disservice to the promotion of progress, and that you've got the best way of framing it. If I take your suggestion of viewing "agency" from a more compatibilist point of view -- and thanks for this nudge -- I find it all far more tractable. I'm a big fan of W.V.O. Quine, and I believe he would have supported your pointing to "agency" as useful in this context. Even if "agency" means not freed... (read more)

1jasoncrawford3moThanks. Yes, one of my problems with compatibilism is, if determinism is true, then in some sense none of this matters? Like, why bother talking about progress when the entire trajectory of the future is already predetermined and literally nothing will change it?
Announcing The Techno-Humanist Manifesto: A new philosophy of progress for the 21st century

This is a huge undertaking, and I admire and respect both your industry and your courage in it.

Two questions/comments: 

Is there a page I can bookmark that will have links to everything that has been published up to that date? I haven't found it if one exists.

I love the core value of human life first made explicit in what's been published to date, but I'm struggling with the concept of agency. I feel like the word agency gets thrown around a lot these days, and I'm afraid that may have muddied the waters for me at least in understanding the ultimate po... (read more)

1jasoncrawford4moThanks! I just updated https://rootsofprogress.org/manifesto [https://rootsofprogress.org/manifesto] with links to everything that's been published so far, and will try to keep it up to date. By agency, I mean two closely related things. * It is the belief that we can make choices and that those choices matter and can be effective, that we can to some significant degree control our lives and shape our future, both as individuals and as a society. The opposite of this is fatalism, the belief that we're being carried along by forces outside our control and that we don't have any choices or that they don't matter. * It is also an ideal or a value, in the sense of believing that it is good for people to have choices and to make them, and that the expansion of choice (again, both for individuals and for society) is a good thing. I do believe in free will (although I'm less clear on it and less certain about it than I used to be) but I'm not sure that a strong belief in free will is necessary to align with my concept of agency—maybe you could also agree with it under a compatibilist notion of volition.
The Prehistory of Startups

Chaotic Progress

A book review in essay format I wrote to help nuance what I see as the unrealistic rhetoric on both sides of the political spectrum right now.
 

https://www.symmetrybroken.com/chaotic-progress/

Making every researcher seek grants is a broken model

This is a brilliant article. My father used to work at IBM ARC back in the 1990s, and you're describing how things worked there, during a period in which numerous Nobels were earned working within a corporation.
 

The jack-of-all-trades approach to being a PI was also part of what drove me personally out of a Ph.D. program and into industry. I didn't want to be a solo entrepreneur constantly writing grants for peanuts. The most attractive jobs to me back then (early 2000s) seemed to be the government lab jobs that had no teaching responsibilities, and r... (read more)

Why Patents? The History and Evidence

Just found this tidbit in the biography of the first patent commissioner Henry Ellsworth:

"Acting as Patent Commissioner, Ellsworth made a decision that profoundly affected the future of Hartford and Connecticut. The young Samuel Colt was struggling to establish a firm to manufacture his new revolver. Ellsworth became interested in Colt's invention, and in 1836 made the decision to issue Colt U.S. Patent No. 138. On the basis of Ellsworth's decision, Colt was able to raise some $200,000 from investors to incorporate the Patent Arms Manufacturing Company of ... (read more)

Why Patents? The History and Evidence

We may have a legit disagreement about the role of patents in supporting the funding of at least certain types of R&D. The Bayh-Dole Act appears to have created a comparative advantage for universities and government labs in funding R&D. Is that the best model? There are reasonable arguments that it is not. But so long as universities and government labs have tech transfer offices, I'm dubious about curiosity driven R&D getting funded by for-profit corporations. Anyway the US market doesn't appear to support it the way it did before the 1980s. ... (read more)

Why Patents? The History and Evidence

Wonderful summary of the history and analysis of the economic advantages and disadvantages to a patent system. I'm a patent lawyer who has been worrying about the question of whether patents promote progress for a couple of decades. https://www.symmetrybroken.com/whats-wrong-with-the-patent-system/

Lately, I've been partial to the model of progress articulated by North, Wallis, and Weingast (NWW) in Violence and Social Orders. https://www.symmetrybroken.com/what-the-patent-system-can-learn-from-violence-and-the-social-order/

Their observation is that a com... (read more)

1ejz1yThese are all great points. But I have to say I don't agree that the question is whether patents are required for the formation of a corporation because that excludes a lot of R&D that might be done by an existing corporation. Maybe the best way to put it is whether it increases the share of R&D invested in science and technology. These are all so tricky to measure; "invention" is abstract, but R&D includes, for example, buying servers. For what it's worth, I don't think that the evidence of multiple inventions is devastating for capital formation around inventions. The question is whether it increases invention overall, for example in helping companies attract financing or just providing more capital (for example, through licensing) to do other things. The evidence there is in favor of patents, but of course, to some extent capital formation bleeds into technology diffusion. For example, some of the papers I talk about show how patents help startups attract VC, get higher sales, and get exits more often. Is that evidence of attracting capital, or is that a longitudinal piece of evidence that the technology got more widely diffused? And how does that relate to the counter-factual of whether this increased the amount of invention? To me it's clear that inventors invent because that's who they are. Patents would help facilitate invention by helping inventors attract more resources to invent in the first place. (The result could be negative if the blocking rights become too severe of course!) One last thing, I completely agree with you on the difference between NPEs and PAEs. On top of universities et al, I'd also add R&D companies that monetize through patent licensing, like ARM.
Accelerating science through evolvable institutions

I agree with that. But having seen IBM ARC up close in person in the 1990s, my gut is that there is some critical mass of curiosity -- a threshold number of curious researchers all working in the same place -- that leads to a kind of magic you don't see when the same people are more distributed geographically.

1jasoncrawford1yGood point, I agree! Something important to creating the right research lab team and culture.
Neither EA nor e/acc is what we need to build the future

Hadn't seen that. Too bad he's misrepresenting facts.

But that hints at what might be worth reevaluating in EA. Jung had this notion of individuation, in which we have to incorporate into our personality conflicting aspects of ourselves in order to fully realize our capabilities. EA seems very academic or analytical in its approach to promoting progress whereas e/acc is more political or emotional. I believe it will take both to realize a future in which progress is accelerated in a way that benefits even the most vulnerable members of society.

Accelerating science through evolvable institutions

I love the work you're doing. I believe there are dysfunctions in the way curiosity-driven academic research gets funded that have and will continue to have major implications for technological progress and economic development. I'm also sympathetic to the sketch of possible reforms. Increasing competition and closing feedback loops on the performance of funding decisions would likely produce tangible benefits.

What I'm wondering about more these days is how things work at the micro level. In my experience, there is a very clear and observable difference be... (read more)

1jasoncrawford1yCuriosity is already a very strong motivator, we just need to enable it and get out of the way. Give scientists funding without making them narrowly constrain their goals, dial down their ambition, or spend half their time writing grants. Then give them the research freedom to pursue that curiosity wherever it leads. It's not easy but it is pretty simple.
Neither EA nor e/acc is what we need to build the future

I can understand why you say what you say about falsification. The way the e/acc community is operating right now is more crusade than critical. But I haven't seen the evidence for lack of integrity that you appear to have seen. Not saying it's not there; just I haven't seen it.

I wouldn't write off the people behind e/acc just yet, however. In the end, the scientific mindset may win out over the short term desire to score points and dunk on a competing vision that has been embarrassed in various ways.

If there were any part of e/acc that you might find worth incorporating into EA, what might it be?

1Chris Leong1yMost recent thing that pops into mind is Beff trying to spread the meme that EA is just a bunch of communists. E/acc seems to do a good job of bringing people together in Twitter spaces.
Neither EA nor e/acc is what we need to build the future

There is an argument to be made that e/acc is the Jungian shadow to EA. 

There is a fundamental difference in principles between the two movements in that EA gradually and then suddenly fell into a paternalistic disregard (if not disdain) for the negative feedback that the market provides -- e.g., Helen Toner's belief that the dissolution of OpenAI was an acceptable alternative to resolving differences with the CEO. But with this exception, most of the principles espoused by EA (scientific mindset, openness to falsifying evidence, integrity, and teamwo... (read more)

1Chris Leong1yEA here. Doesn't seem true as far as I can tell. E/acc doesn't want to expose it's beliefs to falsification; that's why it's almost always about attacking the other side and almost never about arguing for things on the object level. E/acc doesn't care about integrity either. They're very happy to Tweet all kinds of weird conspiracy theories. Anyway, I could be biased here, but that's how I see it.