All of Jonathan Mazumdar's Comments + Replies

The Next Einstein Could Be From Anywhere: Why Developing Country Growth Matters for Progress

Hi Christian - thanks for reading!

The point on elite universities is distinctly about how these epicenters have shifted over time, not a snapshot in time today. Germany was home to the world leading higher education institutions in the 19th century. One example, from mathematics -- over the years the University of Göttingen was home to Gauss, Riemann, Hilbert, von Neumann, and others. The book cited, "Empires of Ideas", gets into this evolution and global movement of modern universities.

On the point of talent being equally distributed, I think this i... (read more)

2ferrm1yCross-national, large sample PISA [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Programme_for_International_Student_Assessment] tests, the most recent of which had >600,000 students, show considerable variation in mathematics, science, and reading scores. See these charts, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:PISA_average_Mathematics_scores_2018.png [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:PISA_average_Mathematics_scores_2018.png], https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:PISA_average_Science_scores_2018.png [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:PISA_average_Science_scores_2018.png], https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:PISA_average_Reading_scores_2018.png [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:PISA_average_Reading_scores_2018.png]. A recent Progress in International Reading Literacy Study report [https://pirls2021.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/files/PIRLS-2021-International-Results-in-Reading.pdf] shows similar variation, with 400,000 students. A simple GDP per capita model fails to predict scores in Qatar, UAE, or China. This and other such international tests all point against an equal distribution. IMO scores don’t help either, they sample people from the edge of the distribution and may be more representative of "talent" (which PISA and PIRLS are not designed to show), and even still we see similar variation. Your quote of an "an equally talented teenager..." assumes the conclusion (comparing people of equal measured ability), as there are countries with 230m people which always get outscored [https://www.imo-official.org/country_team_r.aspx?code=NGA] by a large amount than countries with 5m people [https://www.imo-official.org/country_team_r.aspx?code=SGP]. An economic model again doesn’t predict UAE [https://www.imo-official.org/country_team_r.aspx?code=UAE], or North Korea [https://www.imo-official.org/country_team_r.aspx?code=PRK] (which does very, very well, scoring one place behind South Korea in 2019 and 2015). Again pointing against an equal distribution.

1Christian Kleineidam1yWe see Asian American's overrepresented in some metrics such SAT scores and see them overrepresented in tech employment. There overrepresentation is not a sign of equal distribution. It could just be that Asian parents encourage their children to study in a way that builds specific talents that are useful for success at global technology companies. The claim that talent is equally distributed means that talent is both independent from cultural upbringing and of genetics and not supported by finding a single demographic that does well at something. When it comes to innovation it's worth noting as well that having different talents as other people is useful for innovation.

Introductions thread (please introduce yourself)

Jonathan Mazumdar1y2

Hi! I’m Jonathan Mazumdar, currently co-founder of Growth Teams, a new nonprofit that supports developing countries achieve catch-up growth.

For some time I’ve been interested in the history and economics of innovation and economic growth. One of the books that really ignited my interest in progress-related topics was Where Good Ideas Come From by Steven Johnson; I’m a big fan of all his work.

I’m drawn to progress studies due to the intrinsic satisfaction that comes from knowing the true origin of things, and the lessons that may be relevant both for fronti... (read more)