Group Chat Theory as an operating model for change.

If the American Revolution took place today, it would probably be organized by group chat.

Among the most ambitious and connected people I know, group chats today play a similar role to coffee houses in 19th century Vienna, salons in Enlightenment Paris, and secret societies throughout history. They are the gathering places where like-minded individuals socialize, scheme, and change history.

Being a bit of a nerd, I am developing an idea called Group Chat Theory. Group Chat Theory posits that group chats are powerful nodes of change in the world today. I call Group Chat Theory an operating theory of change, as opposed to an abstract theory of change, because it is tied to specific technologies and forms of communication. Group Chat Theory predicts that the revolutions, movements, counter-insurgencies, social projects, and companies that shape the near future will probably be organized on group chats.

Thus, there are practical implications of Group Chat Theory for ambitious people. Want to set up a space colony? Reform the maritime sector? Advance a new religion or philosophy? Find others who share the interest, and set up a group chat.

I define group chat as a digital venue where a defined group of people communicate in real-time through a messaging-like function. This could be a group text on your phone, a group chat in Messenger or X, or a group chat on a mobile messaging platform like Signal, Wiki, or Telegram. It also could include the chat on a collaboration platform like Slack. Group chats can range in size from two or three people to thousands of participants.

If social media is equivalent to the agora, the public open meeting spaces in Ancient Greece, then group chats are the caves and taverns where secret groups would meet with less visibility.

The implications of Group Chat Theory are not necessarily positive. Group chats can be tools of terrorism and disinformation as easily as they can be used for technology startups and social causes. The messaging platform Telegram was used by the terrorists who recently attacked a concert hall in Russia, killing 137 people. Obviously, this was a horrific use of group chat. Telegram also was used as an organizing node for Hong Kong student protests in 2019, and many of us would view this as a positive use of the platform. The same qualities that make group...

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