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Draft for comment: Towards a philosophy of safety
AdamThierer2y4

Jason: 

If you haven’t already read the work of the late Aaron Wildavsky, I would highly recommend it because he devoted much of his life’s work to the exact issue you tee up here. I’d recommend two of his books to start. The first is Risk and Culture co-authored with Mary Douglas, and the second is his absolutely remarkable Searching for Safety, which served as the inspiration for my book on Permissionless Innovation.

Here are a few choice quotes from Risk and Culture:

  • “Relative safety is not a static but rather a dynamic product of learning from error
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1jasoncrawford2yAh, thanks, I have read a little bit of Searching for Safety in the past, but had forgotten about this. I largely agree with this approach. The one problem is when dealing with catastrophic risks, you can't afford to have an error. In the case of existential risk, there is literally no way to learn or recover from mistakes. In general the worse the risk, the more you need careful analysis and planning up front.
Why pessimism sounds smart
AdamThierer3y3

In his 2013 book, “Smarter Than You Think: How Technology Is Changing Our Minds for the Better,” Clive Thompson noted that “dystopian predictions are easy to generate” and “doomsaying is emotionally self-protective: if you complain that today’s technology is wrecking the culture, you can tell yourself you’re a gimlet-eyed critic who isn’t hoodwinked by high-tech trends and silly, popular activities like social networking. You seem like someone who has a richer, deeper appreciation for the past and who stands above the triviality of today’s life.” (p. 283)

I think that really nails it. 

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