“Ratchet, hatchet, pivot; ratchet, hatchet, pivot. In every cycle, the stakes get higher, as our species expands in numbers and in the extent of its reach across the world. In every cycle, new obstacles emerge. And in every cycle, millennium after millennium, humanity as a whole has muddled through.” - The Big Ratchet, How Humanity Thrives in the Face of Natural Crisis, Ruth DeFries c2014

One of the most profoundly misunderstood concepts about progress studies and human progress-inspired optimism; is that those who communicate the unprecedented progress of the last 200 years are announcing the conclusion to utopia, oblivious to contemporary threats and challenges. Nothing could, however, be further from the truth. The vast majority of active progress proponents are working to some variation of this mission, “the world has become a much better place over the last 200 years, if we keep driving the forces which made that progress possible, the world can be a much better place in the future.”

Many progress proponents have been deeply troubled by the astounding negative bias in the mainstream media, countless stories of destruction, every day an onslaught of death, suffering, risk and future calamity predicted. Fear, anger and disgust sells, and those who write know it. Inspired to tell a better story; one of hope, optimism and the prospect of a better future, some have specialized in telling the story of progress, from “how child mortality fell from 40% to 3.7% in 200 years” to vaccines in development which may save the lives of millions of children. More often than not, those progress proponents are labelled insensitive, out of touch or the shameless proprietors of panacea.

“the world has become a much better place over the last 200 years, if we keep driving the forces which made that progress possible, the world can be a much better place in the future.”

The truth is, that the world is dramatically improved, but still tragically far from utopia. A future where the average child born in the Central African Republic, (life expectancy 53 years, GDP per capita $929), can expect to live a life of similar health, education and abundance to a child born in the United Kingdom (life expectancy 81 years, GDP per capita $45,700), is still a long way off. The ground shared by optimists and pessimists is a recognition that much of the world is awful. To quote Max Roser, “The world is awful. The world is much better. The world can be much better. All three statements are true at the same time.”

Thinking this over during the week, I hit upon the concept for a website, medium or mode of progress communications, based on a concept plucked from Ruth DeFries 2014 book, “The Big Ratchet: How Humanity Thrives in the Face of Natural Crisis”, "Ratchet, Hatchet, Pivot", the cyclical nature of human progress, in just three words.

“With more food to go around, the success ratchets up the number of our species, and people expand into new places. Inevitably, any innovation reaches its limit, creating demands it cannot satisfy, generating too much pollution, or creating some other unforeseen obstacle. Once again, specters of not enough food to go around appear, and prospects look grim. The hatchet falls. Then a new pivot, a new way to use nature’s endowments, emerges. The ratchet turns again, providing more and more people with food, committing civilization to keeping the growing number of people fed. At some point there’s an even bigger hurdle, perhaps from the sheer number of people or from disease, drought, or some other calamity. Ratchet, hatchet, pivot; ratchet, hatchet, pivot. In every cycle, the stakes get higher, as our species expands in numbers and in the extent of its reach across the world. In every cycle, new obstacles emerge.”

Here’s the punchline. Imagine a website, or some other medium, divided like a Kanban board into three flows. "Ratchets, Hatchets and Pivots", a collection of media and articles showcasing civilizations’ progress, challenges and solutions? In order to successfully drive human progress and prosperity forward, a sound knowledge of all three is required. Optimism alone has limited effective utility, but optimism paired with an understanding of challenges, and possible tools for improvement, is transformative. Perhaps that’s how best to reach the masses with the message of progress.

“The battle to feed all of humanity is over. In the 1970s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now. At this late date nothing can prevent a substantial increase in the world death rate” - The Population Bomb, Paul R. Ehrlich c1968

Throughout the first half of the 20th Century, India struggled to feed itself, with Indians suffering a life expectancy of just 43 years. A growing population out of lockstep with food production had many predicting the imminent and unstoppable collapse, one that would claim countless lives. What little ratchet there was for India at the beginning of the 1900s would be subsumed by an enormous hatchet to fall through the 1970s, killing millions when it fell. But in spite of a bleak prospect, something happened to stave off disaster, and turn a hopeless outlook into a more abundant future. However, just when the hatchet looked certain to fall, American agronomist Norman Borlaug was quietly but passionately working on a solution. Borlaug developed a high-yielding variety of dwarf wheat, which when combined with improvements in the quality, availability and methodology of fertilizer application and agricultural mechanization, kicked off the Green Revolution; a dramatic improvement in agricultural output, beginning in India, Pakistan and Mexico and gradually spreading throughout the world.

The result was India’s swift transformation from a net grain importer, struggling to feed its children, to a net exporter of grain, and a jump in life expectancy from 48 years in 1968, the year Ehrlich predicted the apocalypse for India, to 58.6 years just 20 years later and finally to 71 years in 2021, not bad for a country that was doomed.

Ratchets, Hatchets and Pivots have been with our species for tens of thousands of years, they are neither novel nor escapable; they are an intrinsic outcome of our mode of operation as a species. Whether considering the risk of a future pandemic, or the challenges of climate change, there is value in viewing civilization through the lens of Ratchets, Hatchets and Pivots and communicating with them in mind.