Recent Discussion

Some people are very interested in neurotechnology, e.g. BCIs, neuromodulation through transcranial direct current stimulation/pulsed ultrasound/magnetic stimulation or even deep brain stimulation.

The applications people seem most excited by in relation to neurotechnology appear to fall into the categories of (1) outputting information from the brain and (2) inputting information into the brain at a higher throughput/higher fidelity/lower latency, as well as the resulting compound ability to (3) send mental gestalts/felt senses/ideas between people. I'll call these "I/O applications".

E.g. a common imagination is that with BCIs, one'd be able to control computers much more quickly and accurately than with a mouse and keyboard, or retrieve arbitrary facts from Wikipedia as-if from long term memory, or send one's own understanding of a complicated political issue to a conversation partner and have them understand ones perspective.

I think those are great goals, and hope people make progress...

epistemic status: Stating impressions, but I don't know much about quantum physics (or computing!). Someone more qualified please write the accurate version of this post.

I think people have been hyping quantum computing backwards. The specific algorithms that are always brought up as providing a relevant speedup over their classical counterparts are Shor's algorithm and Grover's algorithm, but not much relevant economic activity is tied up with finding the prime factors of numbers, and while getting a radical speedup in unsorted search, the setup costs may only be worth it for extremely large searches:

Even when considering only problem instances that can be solved within one day, we find that there are potentially large quantum speedups available. ... However, the number of physical qubits used is extremely large, ... . In particular, the quantum advantage disappears if one includes the cost of the classical

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The Open Philanthropy Biosecurity and Pandemic Preparedness (BPP) team is hiring and is also looking for promising new grantees! 

The BPP team's focus is on reducing catastrophic and existential risks from biology -- work that we think is currently neglected by the EA community and requires substantially more effort. While AI risks may be larger, the strategy for mitigating biological risks is both much clearer and likely more tractable, though the cause area is severely lacking in talent to execute well. Notably, we don’t think you need a background in biology to do most of these roles well.

Some of the focus areas they're excited for more work in include: physical transmission suppression, metagenomic sequencing, personal protective equipment, medical countermeasures, capacity building for the biosecurity field, and work at...

[This is a linkpost from https://thegreymatter.substack.com/p/book-review-the-system]

Robert Reich wants you to be angry. He wants you to be furious at the rich, outraged at corporations, and incensed by the unfairness of it all. In his book The System: Who Rigged It, How We Fix It, Reich paints a picture of an America ruled by oligarchs, where democracy is a sham and people are powerless against the machinations of the ultra-wealthy.

It's a compelling narrative. It's also deeply flawed.

This matters because Reich isn't just another pundit. He's a former U.S. Secretary of Labor under President Clinton, a Berkeley professor, and a bestselling author with millions of social media followers. "The System" itself became a national bestseller. When someone with his platform and credentials makes sweeping economic claims, people listen. They form...

Metaphors and short explanations have a large influence on how we think and talk about the future. Some examples are: AGI is like nukes, out-of-control race dynamics, LLMs as stochastic parrots.

But most of our common reference points lean dystopian: P(doom), the paperclip maximizer, Black Mirror, Brave New World, 1984. Where are the equally compelling ones for positive futures — abundant clean energy, infinite knowledge, no infectious disease, no poverty, solved aging, effective global coordination?

As one small step toward filling this gap, Foresight Institute is launching the Existential Hope Meme Prize:

  • $10,000 for the best meme that conveys a scientifically grounded, positive vision of the future
  • Open globally

We’re grateful to have Jason Crawford (Roots of Progress) on the judging panel, alongside others from science, media, and progress communities.

Details and submissions here: existentialhope.com/existential-hope-meme-prize

We’d appreciate your help spreading the word, and if you make memes yourself, we’d love to see your submissions.

We're excited to announce our September book discussion featuring After the Spike by Dean Spears and Michael Geruso. 

Pathways to Progress is a community of individuals committed to understanding and contributing to human prosperity. Through our discussions, we examine technological and scientific innovation, economic development, and their role in advancing human prosperity. Each month, we read selected book(s), followed by a Q&A event with the author. Previous books include Pieces of the Action by Vannevar Bush, Where's My Flying Car? by J. Storrs Hall, and Stubborn Attachments by Tyler Cowen. We also host speaker events with guests such as Jason Crawford, Matt Clancy, and Saloni Dattani. Most speaker events are recorded and available on YouTube and Spotify.

Here's our schedule:

  • Discussion Meetings: We'll have two sessions to discuss After the Spike, with an option
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Worker cooperatives are firms that, unlike traditional firms, are run democratically. This means that instead of the owner of the firm deciding who manages the workers, the workers become part owner and get a say in how the firm is run. This has some advantages, such as workers working harder and productivity appearing to increase.
 

Wait… how’s that even possible in theory?

You might be asking yourself: won't workers become lazy since the profit is shared with their colleagues, which means they only get a small proportion of the fruits of their individual labor? According to the free-rider hypothesis, rational and self-interested agents will always have an incentive to put in less effort and be a parasite to the efforts of others. That’s literally the first lesson of game-theory...

Seeking a freelance project manager to help me publish and launch my book, The Techno-Humanist Manifesto.

I have a book deal with a major academic publisher and a deadline this fall. You will help me figure out everything we need to do to make this book a smashing success, and then keep track of it and get it done:

  • Building a website for the book
  • Selecting a PR firm and managing them
  • A/B testing titles & subtitles
  • Gathering blurbs
  • Tracking preparation of the manuscript including footnotes and index
  • Tracking copyrights & permissions on all visuals
  • Etc.

Must have near-superhuman organizational skills and attention to detail, I want zero balls dropped on this project. Experience with publishing projects is a bonus.

Will gladly pay market rates for this work. Apply here.

We're excited to announce our August book discussion featuring Technology and the Rise of Great Powers by Jeffrey Ding.

Pathways to Progress is a community of individuals committed to understanding and contributing to human prosperity. Through our discussions, we examine technological and scientific innovation, economic development, and their role in advancing human prosperity. Each month, we read selected book(s), followed by a Q&A event with the author. Previous books include Pieces of the Action by Vannevar Bush, Where's My Flying Car? by J. Storrs Hall, and Stubborn Attachments by Tyler Cowen. We also host speaker events with guests such as Jason Crawford, Matt Clancy, and Saloni Dattani. Most speaker events are recorded and available on YouTube and Spotify.

Here's our schedule:

  • Discussion Meetings: We'll have two sessions to discuss Technology and the Rise of
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